Cook Political Has Iowa Gov. as Lean Democrat. Texas, Iowa Senate Tossups

The Cook Political Report has adjusted ratings for several key races, shifting five contests to the left on its scale, according to an announcement on August 20, 2026. The changes place the overall Senate race in toss-up territory, though Republicans may still hold a narrow advantage nationally.

Most notably, the Senate races in Texas and Iowa have been moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up. Despite President Donald Trump’s strong past performances in these states—winning Texas by over 13 points and Iowa by a similar margin—recent polling suggests heightened competitiveness. Analysts suggest that in a wave election scenario similar to 2006, even states with deep Republican roots could become viable Democratic targets.

In Texas, Democratic candidate Colin Talarico faces incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that has tightened significantly. While Talarico has faced criticism for past statements on gender and religion, Republicans have yet to finalize a strategy for funding Paxton’s defense. Some GOP strategists have privately indicated that neither the establishment nor Trump-aligned groups have committed to the necessary spending. Talarico’s campaign has also highlighted his bipartisan outreach, particularly to disaffected Republicans, while the presence of a Libertarian candidate on the ballot could further complicate Republican consolidation of support.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Democratic state Representative Josh Turek—who uses a wheelchair due to spina bifida—has emerged as a competitive challenger in the Senate race. Public and private polling shows the contest within the margin of error, with some Democratic surveys even placing Turek ahead. Republicans have countered with a $33 million advertising push alleging missed legislative votes, but Turek has responded by emphasizing his 700 bipartisan votes in the statehouse and his willingness to work with Trump if elected.

The gubernatorial races in both states have also shifted in Democrats’ favor. Texas, previously rated Solid Republican, has been downgraded to Likely Republican, while Iowa’s contest has moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. In Iowa, State Auditor Rob Sand has maintained a consistent lead outside the margin of error in both public and private polling against Republican challenger Zach Lahn. Though no race in Iowa is considered a blowout for Democrats, the Senate shift has prompted the Cook Political Report to reflect a slight edge for Sand at the top of the ticket.

Despite these adjustments, Republicans retain structural advantages, including the partisan lean of the Senate map. Democrats would need nearly all competitive races to break their way to secure a majority. However, the latest shifts underscore growing uncertainty in traditionally red states, particularly in the event of a broader electoral wave. The Cook Political Report’s updated ratings reflect heightened competition in races that, on paper, should favor Republicans, signaling evolving voter sentiment ahead of November.