Trump campaigns for Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race amid tight polls

President Donald Trump traveled to Houston on Thursday to headline a Republican National Committee fundraising event and bolster the Senate campaign of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, his longtime ally, as early voting approaches in less than two months. Trump’s visit comes amid a tightening race between Paxton, the Republican nominee, and Democrat James Talarico, with recent polls showing Talarico holding a slight lead. The president’s appearance underscores the high stakes of the contest, which could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Trump arrived at Ellington Field Joint Reserve Base, where he was greeted by U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, R-Woodville, before addressing supporters. The president later emphasized his commitment to Paxton’s campaign, telling reporters in Washington, D.C., that he would spend more time in Texas to secure the Republican’s victory. “We’re working very hard. We want to win that race,” Trump said, calling Paxton “a good candidate.”

The president’s visit follows a shift in ad spending favoring Paxton’s campaign. According to ad tracking firm AdImpact, Republicans outspent Democrats $3.1 million to $2.5 million in the week of August 25, marking the first time GOP spending surpassed that of Talarico’s campaign. This comes after Talarico had dominated media buys for months, deploying nearly $25 million in advertising since Paxton secured the GOP nomination in late May.

Political analysts, including longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove, have noted the unusual fundraising dynamics in the race. Rove suggested that Paxton’s ability to raise funds independently is limited and that Trump’s potential spending through his super PACs, MAGA Inc. and Never Surrender, could be decisive. “If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up,” Rove said on Fox News. “If he doesn’t, this could be a really bad night for Republicans in Texas.”

Talarico has countered with his own policy rollout, unveiling a plan to address what he terms “Big Medicine,” a critique of the healthcare industry. The plan has been endorsed by Texas entrepreneur Mark Cuban, who will join Talarico for a live discussion moderated by Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov in Fort Worth on Saturday. Meanwhile, Paxton’s allies have begun airing attack ads against Talarico, focusing on issues such as China policy and crime. A group called Protecting America’s Future, funded by billionaire Tim Dunn, launched a $120,000 ad campaign targeting Talarico in the Corpus Christi media market this week.

With early voting set to begin soon, the race remains volatile. Republican strategists have warned that Democratic polling strength typically peaks in the summer, with potential shifts as Paxton’s campaign ramps up its messaging. The outcome of this contest could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate ahead of the 2024 elections.

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