How the weather in space can affect us on Earth - and the team trying to protect us

The UK Met Office has partnered with academic researchers to enhance its space weather forecasting capabilities, aiming to protect critical infrastructure from severe solar events that threaten power grids, satellite operations, and global communications.

Led by Aberystwyth University alongside the universities of Durham, Northumbria, and Reading, the initiative seeks to improve early warning systems for space weather, which is primarily driven by radiation bursts and solar flares from the Sun. Severe space weather is included on the UK government's National Risk Register, with a report by insurance market Lloyd's estimating that a major event could cost the global economy up to 2.4 trillion dollars over a five-year period.

Operating a 24-hour prediction centre, the Met Office has worked with key infrastructure operators since 2014. However, forecasters currently face significant monitoring gaps. While scientists can detect a solar event as it erupts on the Sun's surface roughly three days before it reaches Earth, they lose sight of the storm until it hits satellites located about one million miles from the planet. This leaves forecasters with only about an hour to precisely measure the storm's potential impact and issue emergency warnings.

Richard Stone, a member of the Met Office space forecasting team, compared the limitation to observing a storm on the east coast of America and receiving no further data until it reaches Ireland. Stone noted that while technology has advanced significantly since 2014, available satellite observations remain limited.

Improved forecasting allows energy providers like the National Grid to adjust systems to prevent blackout events and enables commercial airlines to divert flights from high latitudes to safer lower latitudes. Professor Huw Morgan, head of space physics at Aberystwyth University, emphasized that pre-warning offers crucial mitigation, though he noted space weather forecasting remains a developing field compared to terrestrial meteorology.

Solar activity follows an approximate 11-year cycle, fluctuating between quiet periods and activity peaks capable of generating multiple severe events daily. The Sun reached its latest peak, known as the Solar Maximum, in 2024, triggering widespread auroras, such as the Northern Lights. Despite the recent surge in solar activity, forecaster warnings have helped infrastructure operators prevent major disruptions on Earth.

Scientists frequently point to the 1859 Carrington Event as the benchmark for severe geomagnetic storms. During that event, sky-wide auroras were observed globally and telegraph systems failed, with operators reporting humming wires that functioned without power supplies due to atmospheric electricity. Experts warn that a similar event today would have vastly greater consequences due to modern society's reliance on electronic technology.

Space weather also poses direct risks beyond Earth. Former astronaut Helen Sharman, the first British person in space, recalled how galactic cosmic rays penetrated her spacecraft during a 1991 mission to the Mir Space Station, causing bright flashes of light on her retinas. Experts note that as space agencies plan future missions to the Moon and Mars, beyond the protective shelter of Earth's magnetic field, improved space weather prediction will be vital to safeguarding astronauts from radiation.